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June 2009 - Posts
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Even though I found no evidence that frequent BD favors girls, I thought that perhaps if the BD was consecutive - that is, if there was BD at least once every day - that that pattern might favor girls. So I looked at all the charts where the BD ended with at least 4 consecutive BD times, to see if frequent, consecutive BD favored girls.
So, for instance, if a chart had 5 BD times, starting with 1 day of BD, followed by a gap of one day, followed by 4 days with BD every day, it was included. But if it started with 2 days of BD, followed by a gap of one day, followed by 3 days with BD, it was not included. Also, I counted multiple BD times during one day as separate BD times. So I included charts that had, for instance, 1 day with 1 BD time, followed by a day with 2 BD times, followed by a day with 1 BD time.
There was a small preference for girls on the charts with frequent, consecutive BD. There were 40 boy charts and 45 girl charts with this pattern, resulting in a preference of 52.9% for girls.
- 4+ consecutive BD times: 40 boy charts, 45 girls (sways for girl 52.9%)
- 5+ consecutive BD times: 26 boy charts, 27 girl charts (sways for girl 50.9%)
- 6+ consecutive BD times: 16 boy charts, 13 girl charts (sways for boy 55.2%)
- 7+ consecutive BD times: 7 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways for girl 56.25%)
And here are the actual numbers of charts that had 4, 5, 6, etc. BD times on them:
- 4 consecutive BD times: 14 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways girl 56.5%)
- 5 consecutive BD times: 10 boy charts, 14 girl charts (sways girl 58.3%)
- 6 consecutive BD times: 9 boy charts, 4 girl charts (sways boy 69.2%)
- 7 consecutive BD times: 5 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways girl 58.3%)
- 8 consecutive BD times: 1 boy chart, 2 girl charts (sways girl 66.6%)
- 9 consecutive BD times: 1 boy chart, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%)
While it appears that frequent, consecutive BD favors girls to a small degree, this appearance disappears if we look at just the charts that had BD on ovulation. Of these frequent, consecutive BD charts, 39 boy charts and 38 girl charts had BD on the day of ovulation, resulting in a 50.6% preference for boys - which is basically the same as chance.
On the other hand, if we look at the charts with frequent, consecutive BD that AVOIDS ovulation, the numers are startling. 1 boy chart and 7 girl charts followed this pattern, which results in an 87.5% preference for girls.
It seems that - like frequent BD in general - frequent, consecutive BD is pretty much 50/50 if the frequent BD includes the day of ovulation. However - again like frequent BD in general - if ovulation is avoided, frequent consecutive BD appears to favor girls, possibly by a significant amount.
(Note: I do not believe that frequent, consecutive BD that avoids ovulation is anywhere close to 90% effective at swaying for girls. However, I do think it may be another effective girl swaying technique and will explore this pattern further in my next post.)
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One of the most popular timing methods to sway for a girl (at least on Fertility Friend) is frequent BD through ovulation, so that is the fifth swaying theory that I tested in my study of charts. What I found is the frequent BD through ovulation is pretty close to 50/50, and if anything, slightly favors boys.
Overall the amount of BD on boy and girl charts is pretty close to identical. There were 878 BD times on the 250 boy charts (average of 3.51 BD times on the boy charts). There were 867 BD times on the 250 girl charts (average of 3.47 BD times on the girl charts).
Since there is no set definition for frequent BD, I chose to define it as at least 4 BD times during the five days prior to ovulation through the day afterwards. 232 charts out of the 500 I looked at followed this pattern, 113 girl charts and 119 boy charts.
Frequent BD charts:
- 4 BD times: 54 boy charts, 53 girl charts (sways boy 50.5%)
- 5 BD times: 36 boy charts, 34 girl charts (sways boy 51.4%)
- 6 BD times: 19 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways boy 55.9%)
- 7+ BD times: 10 boy charts, 11 girl charts (sways girl 52.4%)
What seems to make the difference in whether frequent BD sways for a girl or whether it produces numbers that are pretty much the same as chance is whether there is BD on the day of ovulation. 141 charts with frequent BD had BD on the day of ovulation, 77 boy charts and 64 girl charts, resulting in a 54.6% preference for boys.
However, if the day of ovulation is avoided, frequent BD favors girls. 58 charts followed this pattern, 25 boy charts and 33 girl charts, resulting in a 56.9% preference for girls.
I'm not sure why frequent BD through ovulation has gotten such a following among women swaying for girls. As far as I can tell, it doesn't sway at all. The total amount of BD on boy and girl charts is virtually identical, the number of charts with frequent BD is virtually identical, and the rate of frequent BD on those charts (that is, the number of charts with 4 BD times, 5 BD times, etc.) is also virtually identical. And since I have over 200 charts following this pattern, I think the results are reasonably reliable.
Frequent BD may lower sperm count, but apparently if that BD includes the day of ovulation, the fact that the environment on ovulation favors boys seems to cancel out any benefit the lowered sperm count may have provided. The fact that many women swaying for girls have been successful with frequent BD through ovulation is probably partly due to the fact that this timing method is 50/50 and partly due to the other things also being done to sway (like diet, cm, and ph).
I don't think that frequent BD through ovulation is the WORST timing method someone swaying for a girl can use, since I don't think it strongly sways for boys. However, unless someone has fertility issues that make getting pregnant difficult - or is more concerned with getting pregnant than with having a girl - it would be much wiser to choose one of the timing methods that actually does favor girls.
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The fourth theory I tested was whether cut-offs of at least 2 days resulted in more girls. The result was that shorter cut-offs (2-4 days) favored girls and longer cut-offs (5+ days) favored boys.
Overall, there were 23 boy charts and 36 girl charts with cut-offs, which results in a preference for girls of 61%.
- 2 day cut-off: 13 boy charts, 19 girl charts (sways girl 59.4%)
- 3 day cut-off: 4 boy charts, 11 girl charts (sways girl 73.3%)
- 4 day cut-off: 2 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways girl 71.4%)
- 5 day cut-off: 3 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways boy 75%)
- 6 day cut-off: 1 boy chart, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%)
I also kept track of charts that had a 2+ day cut-off, followed by BD the day after ovulation. (Please keep in mind that this is NOT the same thing as a cut-off and an O+12. BD the day after ovulation may mean an O+12 - but it may also mean that the BD happened within 12 hours of ovulation if ovulation occurred late in the day on the "day of ovulation," or it may mean the BD occurred long after the egg had died.) There were 14 boy charts and 9 girl charts with this pattern, resulting in a 60.9% preference for boys.
- 2 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 8 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways for boy 61.5%)
- 3 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 3 boy charts, 3 girl charts (50/50)
- 4 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 3 boy charts, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%)
- 5 day cut-off w/BD 1 day after ovulation: 0 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways girl 100%)
This finding obviously conflicts with the expectation that cut-offs and BD a while after ovulation takes place favors girls. However, what I suspect is going on with some of these charts is that the BD on the day after ovulation is taking place within 12 hours after ovulation - which is boy timing. It's impossible to know for sure, of course, without knowing exactly when ovulation or the BD takes place. But I suspect the reason why the results are different from charts where there is just a straight cut-off is that some of the these charts include an O-12.
Cut-offs are one of the most common - and controversial - timing methods for swaying. And one of the most common reasons people give for not believing timing works is that they did a cut-off as Shettles suggested . . . and ended up with a boy.
According to my research, cut-offs are about 60% effective. (I haven't looked at huge numbers of cut-offs, so the percentage could certainly change if I found more charts. However, I have been consistently getting around a 60% effectiveness rate for cut-offs since I started this study, so I think it's on the right track.) A 60% effectiveness rate is GREAT for a timing method. I think it's also pretty great for ANY swaying method period. The highest realistic percentage I've seen for any timing method is 65-70% effectiveness, and there are only around 3 patterns that MIGHT be that effective.
So if cut-offs are really 60% effective for girls, that means it is a great timing method to sway with. However, 60% is far, far, far below 100% effectiveness. It is also below the 75% effectiveness Shettles claimed for girls. It means that if the only thing you do to sway is to have a cut-off, you have gone from a 5 in 10 chance of having a girl to a 6 in 10 chance of having a girl. That is NOT a huge jump in effectiveness. It is definitely not a guarantee of getting a girl, and lots of people who do cut-offs are going to end up with boys. This is why I think it is critical for anyone who is swaying to include as many factors as possible in their sway. I doubt that there are very many swaying methods that are more than 60-65% effective. Doing just one thing - even if it is a very effective thing - isn't going to work that well on its own.
One more notable thing about cut-offs is that they are not a particularly good way to get pregnant. Only 59 charts out of 500 (11.8%) had a cut-off. Only 12 charts (2.4%) had a cut-off of 4 or more days.
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At the time I was ttc my dd, one of the theories that was popular on Fertility Friend was that BD only once significantly favored boys (this was the opposite of the other popular theory there - that frequent BD favors girls). So the third theory I tested was whether BD just one-time favor boys.
There were slightly more boy charts with one-time BD, but the results weren't that much different from chance. 24 girl charts had one-time BD, and 26 boy charts had one-time BD, which results in a 52% preference for boys (26/50 charts).
However, what was significant was the day the one-time BD occurred on.
- on the day of ovulation: 7 boy charts, 4 girls (sways boy 63.6%)
- 1 day before ovulation: 11 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways boys 68.8%)
- 2 days before ovulation: 1 boy chart, 6 girl charts (sways girl 85.7%)
- 3 days before ovulation: 2 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways girl 60%)
- 4 days before ovulation: 1 boy chart, 5 girl charts (sways girl 83.3%)
- 5 days before ovulation: 3 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways boy 75%)
- 6 days before ovulation: 1 boy chart, 0 girl charts (sways boy 100%)
Now, there aren't that many charts with one-time BD, so I don't consider most of these percentages - at least for the longer cut-offs - to be totally accurate. (When you are only looking at 6 charts, for instance, that just isn't enough to really know for sure how the pattern sways.) However, this does suggest that BD one-time the day of or day prior to ovulation favors boys, BD one-time 2-4 days before ovulation favors girls, and BD one-time 5-6 days before ovulation favors boys. Since this is mostly consistent with other swaying information about cut-offs, I think the information is on the right track.
Note: One thing that is interesting is that there are equal numbers of girl charts on the day of and day prior to ovulation (9 total) and on 2 and 3 days prior to ovulation (9 total). The huge variation occurs in the boy charts. There are 18 boy charts on the day of and day prior to ovulation, and only 3 charts on the 2 and 3 days prior to ovulation.
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The second theory I tested was whether little or no eggwhite or watery cm resulted in more girls. Before I get into my findings, I should say that I think these results should be taken with a very large grain of salt. As I have worked on this study, I have come to think that the information on FF about cm is of limited use.
For one thing, when I was analyzing patterns, I only kept track of cm on the days where there was BD. This made the charts easier to study, but I realized later on that cm throughout the fertile period is significant - not just cm on the days with BD. However, I'm glad I didn't spend a lot more time tracking cm patterns on the charts because I think the information about cm would still be of limited use even if I kept track of the cm for every day.
First, the cm descriptions aren't totally consistent. One person might mark down that she had "eggwhite" cm because there was a tiny little blob of eggwhite one time during the day. Another person might have had voluminous amounts of eggwhite cm all day long. It can also be difficult to distinguish between different kinds of cm. I know I have a hard time sometimes telling if my cm is "watery" or "eggwhite," for instance. And finally, it is sometimes unclear from charts whether a person had little or no ewcm - or if she simply didn't bother charting cm a lot of the time.
I don't think the information is totally useless or I wouldn't bother posting it at all. But I still don't think anyone should put much stock in the information here, and in the future, I may not bother keeping track of cm at all. Fortunately, there are lots of MUCH better studies on cm in the FAQ where we can get much more useful information about cm and swaying.
Overall, BD with little or no ewcm did appear to favor girls. There were 98 girl charts with no ewcm OR only one day of ewcm when BD, and only 80 boy charts. Thus the lack of ewcm favored girls 55.1% (98/178).
When we look at the charts more specifically, though, the numbers are mostly pretty similar.
98 out of 250 girl charts had no ewcm or only one day with ewcm when BD (so 39.2% of all girl charts)
- 34 charts had NO ewcm
- 35 charts had a 2+ day cut-off of the one day of ewcm (this means that BD may have continued past a cut-off, but the one day of ewcm was 2, 3, 4 or 5 days before ovulation)
- 13 charts had the one day of ewcm on the day prior to ovulation
- 14 charts had the one day of ewcm on the day of ovulation
- 2 charts had the one day of ewcm on the day after ovulation
80 out of 250 boy charts had no ewcm or only one day with ewcm when BD (so 32% of all boy charts)
- 34 charts had NO ewcm
- 15 charts had a 2+ day cut-off of the one day of ewcm
- 16 charts had the one day of ewcm on the day prior to ovulation
- 14 charts had the one day of ewcm on the day of ovulation
- 1 chart had the one day of ewcm on the day after ovulation
As you can see, for most of the patterns, the numbers were very similar except for one: The pattern where there was a 2+ day cut-off of the one day of ewcm. 35 girl charts had this pattern in comparison to only 15 boy charts, resulting in a 70% preference for girls (35/50).
I certainly wouldn't go and try to have one day of ewcm with a cut-off if ttc a girl - but this does suggest if you do have a day of ewcm a couple days before you ovulate, that it isn't necessarily going to ruin your sway. :)
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The first theory that I tested using the charts on Fertility Friend is whether BD on the day of ovulation results in more boys. After looking at another 100 charts (bringing the total number of charts I've analyzed to 500, 250 boy charts and 250 girl charts), the answer is still the same as previously: technically yes, it favors boys, but the results are pretty much the same as chance.
A majority of all charts - for boys and girls - had BD on the day of ovulation.
- 151 boy charts out of 250 (60.4% of all boy charts had BD on ovulation)
- 140 girl charts out of 250 (56% of all girl charts had BD on ovulation)
This means that out of 291 total charts (boy and girl) with BD on the day of ovulation, boys resulted 51.9% of the time (151/291 charts) and girls resulted 48.1% of the time (140/291 charts). While this technically results in more boys, the findings are essentially the same as chance (since the natural birth rate is 51% boys, and 49% girls). It indicates that simply BD on the day of ovulation does not sway.
One thing that does sway a little bit is the kind of cm present on the day of ovulation. If there is ewcm (eggwhite OR watery cm) on the day of ovulation, boys are more likely to result.
- 110 boy charts out of 201 charts w/ewcm on ovulation (54.7%)
- 91 girl charts out of 201 charts w/ewcm on ovulation (45.3%)
If there is NOT ewcm present (if it is sticky or creamy, or there is no cm present), girls are more likely to result.
- 41 boy charts out of 90 charts with NO ewcm on ovulation (45.6%)
- 49 girl charts out of 90 charts with NO ewcm on ovulation (54.4%)
This finding has consistently surprised me. It seemed logical that, since at ovulation ph is typically at its highest and cm is usually most plentiful, BD on that day would result in more boys. But that is not the case. Simply BD on ovulation apparently does not sway; the results are essentially the same as chance.
Now there ARE some patterns with BD on ovulation that do favor boys, and we will get to those shortly. But BD on ovulation in general doesn't sway.
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Below I have summarized the results for each of the 5 swaying theories I tested after looking at 200, 300 and 400 charts from the gallery at FF. If you don't like numbers, this may not be your cup of tea, lol. On the other hand, if you found it difficult to wade through the results I posted earlier, you might find it easier to read this briefer summary of what I found!
One thing that is notable after looking at the comparison below is that the results tend to be pretty similar for most of the findings. When there ARE significant changes, it usually means 1) there were a small number of charts representing a particular pattern, and 2) methods that appeared to be highly effective (75% effectiveness or higher) typically have their effectiveness rates drop as more charts become available. Another thing that is notable is the most of the things that appear to sway, don't sway very much (usually under 60% effectiveness).
It is important to keep in mind that the more charts, the more reliable the findings. There are a number of patterns that still have fewer than 20 charts available, and so those findings - while interesting - are of questionable accuracy.
Does BD on ovulation favor boys? Yes
Charts w/BD on the day of ovulation:
- 200 charts: 60 boy charts (58.8% of all boy charts), 54 girl charts (53.5% of all girl charts); (sways for boy 52.6%)
- 300 charts: 92 boy charts (61.3% of all boy charts), 84 girl charts (56% of all girl charts); (sways for boy 52.3%)
- 400 charts: 123 boy charts (61.5% of all boy charts), 112 girl charts (56% of all girl charts); (sways for boy 52.3%)
Charts w/BD on the day of ovulation w/ewcm:
- 200 charts: 42 boy charts, 32 girl charts (sways for boy 56.8%)
- 300 charts: 65 boy charts, 53 girl charts (sways for boy 55.1%)
- 400 charts: 91 boy charts, 70 girl charts (sways for boy 56.5%)
Charts w/BD on the day of ovulation without ewcm:
- 200 charts: 18 boy charts, 22 girl charts (sways for girl 55%)
- 300 charts: 27 boy charts, 31 girl charts (sways for girl 53.4%)
- 400 charts: 32 boy charts, 42 girl charts (sways for girl 56.8%)
Does frequent BD through ovulation favor girls? No
Number of BD times on charts:
- 200 charts: boy charts averaged 3.42 BD times, girl charts averaged 3.38 BD times
- 300 charts: boy charts averaged 3.47 BD times, girl charts averaged 3.47 BD times
- 400 charts: boy charts averaged 3.5 BD times, girl charts averaged 3.47 BD times
Number of charts w/frequent BD (4+ BD times):
- 200 charts: 44 boy charts, 45 girl charts (sways for girl 50.6%)
- 300 charts: 69 boy charts, 67 girl charts (sways for boy 50.7%)
- 400 charts: 96 boy charts, 92 girl charts (sways for boy 51.1%)
Number of charts w/5+ BD times:
- 200 charts: 24 boy charts, 19 girl charts (sways for boy 55.8%)
- 300 charts: 39 boy charts, 37 girl charts (sways for boy 51.3%)
- 400 charts: 53 boy charts, 46 girl charts (sways for boy 53.5%)
Number of charts w/6+ BD times:
- 200 charts: 12 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways for boy 66.7%)
- 300 charts: 16 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways for boy 51.6%)
- 400 charts: 23 boy charts, 20 girl charts (sways for boy 53.5%)
Number of charts w/7+ BD times:
- 200 charts: 4 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways for boy 80%)
- 300 charts: 4 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways for girl 55.6%)
- 400 charts: 7 boy charts, 8 girl charts (sways for girl 53.3%)
Charts w/frequent BD that includes BD on ovulation
- 200 charts: 34 boy charts, 27 girl charts (sways for boy 55.7%)
- 300 charts: 51 boy charts, 45 girl charts (sways for boy 53.1%)
- 400 charts: 77 boy charts, 64 girl charts (sways for boy 54.6%)
Charts w/frequent BD that avoids BD on ovulation
- 200 charts: 10 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways for girl 64.3%)
- 300 charts: 17 boy charts, 23 girl charts (sways for girl 57.5%)
- 400 charts: 19 boy charts, 28 girl charts (sways for girl 59.6%)
Charts w/frequent consecutive BD (at least 4 BD times and no gaps in the last 4 BD times)
- 200 charts: 16 boy charts, 15 girl charts (sways for boy 51.6%)
- 300 charts: 22 boy charts, 23 girl charts (sways for girl 51.1%)
- 400 charts: 29 boy charts, 29 girl charts (50/50)
Charts w/at least 5 consecutive BD times
- 200 charts: 9 boy charts, 8 girl charts (sways for boy 52.9%)
- 300 charts: 10 boy charts, 12 girl charts (sways for girl 54.5%)
- 400 charts: 20 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways for boy 52.6%)
Charts w/at least 6 consecutive BD times
- 200 charts: 7 boy charts, 2 girl charts (sways for boy 77.8%)
- 300 charts: 8 boy charts, 5 girl charts (sways for boy 61.5%)
- 400 charts: 12 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways for a boy 57.1%)
Charts w/at least 7 consecutive BD times
- 200 charts: 2 boy charts, 1 girl chart (sways for boy 66.7%)
- 300 charts: 2 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for girl 60%)
- 400 charts: 4 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways for girl 63.6%)
Charts w/frequent consecutive BD (at least 4 BD times and no gaps in the last 4 BD times) that avoids ovulation
- 200 charts: 1 boy chart, 4 girl charts (sways for girl 80%)
- 300 charts: 1 boy chart, 5 girl charts (sways for girl 83.3%)
- 400 charts: 1 boy chart, 6 girl charts (sways for girl 85.7%)
Does one time BD favor boys? No
Charts w/one time BD
- 200 charts: 7 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways for girl 56.3%)
- 300 charts: 13 boy charts, 12 girl charts (sways for boy 52%)
- 400 charts: 20 boy charts, 18* girl charts (sways for boy 52.6%)
Charts w/one time BD the day of or day before ovulation
- 200 charts: 4 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for boy 57.1%)
- 300 charts: 9 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for boy 75%)
- 400 charts: 15 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways for boy 68.2%)
Charts w/one time BD 2 or 3 days before ovulation
- 200 charts: 1 boy chart, 3 girl charts (sways for girl 75%)
- 300 charts: 2 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways for girl 75%)
- 400 charts: 3 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways for girl 66.7%)
Charts w/one time BD 4+ days before ovulation
- 200 charts: 2 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for girl 60%)
- 300 charts: 2 boy charts, 3 girl charts (sways for girl 60%)
- 400 charts: 2 boy charts, 4 girl charts (sways for girl 66.7%)
*Note: The number of one-time BD girl charts from the "400 chart" analysis does not equal 18 (7+6+4=17). This is because there was another chart with one-time BD the day AFTER ovulation. However, after looking at that chart more carefully, I removed it from the study because the temperature on the most likely day of ovulation had been discarded. I believe the one-time BD probably took place on the day of ovulation, not the day afterward. If that was the case, the stats for one time BD the day of or day before ovulation should be 15 boy charts, 8 girl charts, sways for boy 65.2%).
Does BD without ewcm favor girls? Yes
Charts w/no ewcm OR only 1 time w/ewcm while BD
- 200 charts: 28 boy charts, 38 girl charts (sways for girl 57.6%)
- 300 charts: 47 boy charts, 56 girl charts (sways for girl 54.4%)
- 400 charts: 59 boy charts, 79 girl charts (sways for girl 57.2%)
Charts w/no ewcm while BD
- 200 charts: 13 boy charts, 17 girl charts (sways for girl 56.7%)
- 300 charts: 18 boy charts, 24 girl charts (sways for girl 57.1%)
- 400 charts: 23 boy charts, 27 girl charts (sways for girl 54%)
Charts w/a 2+ day cut-off of ewcm (cut-off ONLY of ewcm NOT of BD)
- 200 charts: 4 boy charts, 12 girl charts (sways for girl 75%)
- 300 charts: 9 boy charts, 18 girl charts (sways for girl 66.7%)
- 400 charts: 12 boy charts, 27 girl charts (sways for girl 69.2%)
Do cut-offs favor girls? Yes
Charts w/2 day cut-offs
- 200 charts: 8 boy charts, 7 girl charts (sways for boy 53.3%)
- 300 charts: 9 boy charts, 14 girl charts (sways for girl 60.9%)
- 400 charts: 12 boy charts, 16 girl charts (sways for girl 57.1%)
Charts w/3 day cut-offs
- 200 charts: 2 boy charts, 6 girl charts (sways for girl 75%)
- 300 charts: 4 boy charts, 9 girl charts (sways for girl 69.2%)
- 400 charts: 4 boy charts, 10 girl charts (sways for girl 71.4%)
Charts w/4+ day cut-offs
- 200 charts: 3 boy charts, 3 girl charts (50/50)
- 300 charts: 3 boy charts, 3 girl charts (50/50)
- 400 charts: 3 boy charts, 4 girl charts (sways for girl 57.1%)
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Here is the summary I wrote after looking at 400 charts.
To try to figure out what really works in gender swaying, I analyzed 200 girl charts and 200 boy charts in FF, paying particular attention to CM and BD patterns from five days before ovulation to the day after ovulation. This is what I found.
Note: "ewcm" in the descriptions below refers to eggwhite OR watery cm - not just eggwhite cm. Also, be sure to keep in the mind than just by chance, the odds of having a girl are 49% and the chances of having a boy are 51%. The percentages below should be compared to those base numbers.
1. Does BD on ovulation favor boys?
Not really. It slightly favors boys, but the influence isn't much greater than chance.
Out of the 200 girl charts, 112 (56% of charts) had BD on ovulation. Out of the 200 boy charts, 123 had BD on ovulation (61.5% of charts).
- Thus BD on ovulation results in a 47.7% chance of a girl (112/235), and a 52.3% chance of a boy (123/235) - which isn't much different than chance.
The amount of CM on ovulation does seem to sway things one way or the other, though.
- 161 charts had ewcm on ovulation: 70 girl charts (70/161 = 43.5%), and 91 boy charts (91/161 = 56.5%)
- 74 charts did not have ewcm on ovulation: 42 girl charts (42/74 = 56.8%), and 32 boy charts (32/74 = 43.2%).
Conclusion: A majority of all charts have BD on ovulation, and BD on ovulation has no significant effect on gender. While it slightly favors boys (52.3%), this is almost the same as chance. The kind of CM present is more significant. If ewcm is present, there is a stronger chance of a boy (56.5%), but if it is not, girls are favored (56.8%).
2. Does frequent BD through Ovulation favor girls?
No. I have found no evidence that frequent BD - particularly through ovulation - favors girls. If anything, there is a slight preference for boys.
The number of BD times between the boy and girl charts are virtually the same. The 200 girl charts had 693 BD times, for an average of 3.47 times. The 200 boy charts had 700 BD times, for an average of 3.5 times. In overall amounts of BD, there is essentially no difference between boy and girl charts.
The number of charts with frequent BD (4 BD times or more) was also very similar, with 92 girl charts and 96 boy charts. The boy charts had slightly more BDing than the girl charts, but the numbers were still about the same. (Girl charts: 444 BD times on 92 charts = an average of 4.83 times; Boy charts: 470 BD times on 96 charts = an average of 4.9 times)
The frequency rate of BD was also similar. The girl charts had: 46 charts w/4 BD times, 26 charts w/5 BD times, 12 charts w/6 BD times, and 8 charts w/7+ BD times. The boy charts had: 43 charts w/4 BD times, 30 charts w/5 BD times, 16 charts w/6 BD times, and 7 charts w/7+ BD times.
If the frequent BD includes BD on the day of ovulation, boys result the most often.
- Of the 92 girl charts, 64 had BD on ovulation (69.6% of the girl charts)
- Of the 96 boy charts, 77 had BD on ovulation (80.2% of the boy charts).
- So out of these 141 frequent BD charts with BD on ovulation, girls resulted 45.4% of the time (64/141) and boys resulted 54.6% of the time (77/141).
However, looking at the 47 charts with frequent BD that avoided ovulation, the balance tips towards girls. 59.6% of these charts produced girls (28/47), but only 40.4% produced boys (19/47).
Consecutive BD (BD for at least 4 consecutive times with no gaps in the last 4 times of BD) also did not favor girls except when there were 7 or more consecutive BD days.
- Out of the 58 charts with this pattern, the results were exactly even: 29 girl charts and 29 boy charts.
- Out of the 38 charts with at least 5 consecutive times, boys were preferred: 18 produced girls (18/38 = 47.4%), and 20 produced boys (20/38 = 52.6%.)
- Out of the 21 charts with at least 6 consecutive times, boys were even more strongly favored: 9 produced girls (9/21 = 42.9%), and 12 produced boys (12/21 = 57.1%).
- However, with at least 7 consecutive days, it shifted to a preference for girls. In 11 charts, 7 produced a girl (7/11 = 63.6%), and 4 produced boys (4/11 = 36.4%).
The pattern that most clearly favored girls was consecutive BD (BD for at least 4 consecutive days with no gaps in the last 4 times of BD) that avoided ovulation. 7 charts followed this pattern: 6 girls (6/7 = 85.7%), 1 boy (1/7 = 14.3%). This sample is so small, though, that the results aren't totally reliable.
Conclusion: Frequent BD by itself does not appear to be an effective method for swaying for a girl.
- Boy and girl charts have almost identical amounts of BD overall, very similar numbers of charts with frequent BD (4 or more BD times), and very similar frequency rates (that is, how many charts have 4 BD times, 5 BD times, etc.). When a preference appears in the charts, frequent BD most often shows a slight preference for boys.
- However, frequent BDing did favor girls if BDing on ovulation was avoided (59.6% preference for girls). If there was BD for at least 4 consecutive times with no gaps in the last 4 times of BD - and if the BD avoided ovulation - girls were even more strongly favored (85.7%). However, since the sample is small (only 7 charts) this last finding isn't totally reliable.
- If frequent BD is really as effective in swaying for a girl as people say, it is my guess that it is the combination of taking supplements, keeping ph down, AND frequent BD that works, since I have found no evidence that frequent BDing by itself has any significant effect on gender determination.
3. Does one time BD favor boys?
Not really. There is a slight preference for boys, but the overall numbers are very similar and the preference for boys isn't much greater than chance.
38 charts had only one BD session - 18 girl charts and 20 boy charts.
While the numbers of charts with one-time BDing were similar, the pattern of BDing was significant.
- 15 boy and 7 girl charts had the BD on ovulation or the day before. (68.2% chance for a boy on those two days.)
- 3 boy and 6 girls charts had the BD 2 or 3 days before ovulation. (66.7% chance for a girl on those days.)
- 2 boy and 4 girl charts had the BD 4 to 6 days before ovulation. (66.7% chance for a girl.)
Conclusion: Single time BDing by itself does not appear to particularly favor boys, but if BDing only occurs one time, the day it occurs is significant. BDing on ovulation or the day before results in a 68.2% preference for boys, BDing 2 or 3 days before ovulation results in a 66.7% preference for girls, and BDing 4-6 days before ovulation also favors girls 66.7%. (The samples for one-time BDing more than 2 days before ovulation are quite small, particularly for BDing more than 4 days before ovulation, so the results aren't totally reliable.) Another notable conclusion is that BD 1 time is not the most effective way to get pregnant. Only 9.5% of all the charts I looked at (38/400) had this pattern.
4. Does BD without ewcm favor girls?
Yes. If there is little to no ewcm during BD times, girls are more likely to result.
Boy and girl charts have similar amounts of ewcm overall, but there is a slightly greater percentage of ewcm when BD occurs on boy charts. The boy charts had 700 BD times and 461 of those times had ewcm (65.9%). The girl charts had 693 BD times and 426 of those days had ewcm (61.5%).
However, charts that had either no ewcm when BD or only 1 day of BD with ewcm did favor girls. 138 charts had these patterns: 79 girl charts (79/138, 57.2%), and 59 boy charts (59/138, 42.8%).
- If there was no ewcm when BD, girls were favored: girl charts 27/50 (54%), boy charts 23/50 (46%).
- If there was only one day of BD with ewcm, girls were favored: girl charts 52/89 (58.4%), boy charts 37/89 (41.6%)
- If there was a cut-off of BDing with ewcm (BDing with ewcm ended at least 2 days before ovulation), girls were even more strongly favored: girl charts 27/39 (69.2%), boy charts 12/39 (30.8%)
Conclusion: Limiting the amount of ewcm on days when BD occurs favors girls, as does having a cut-off of at least two days of BDing with ewcm (NOT a cut-off of BD period).
5. Do cut-offs of at least 2 days favor girls?
Yes. Cut-offs produce more girls than boys.
More girl charts than boy charts had cut-offs (BD ends no later than 2 days before ovulation).
- 30 Girl Charts: 2 day: 16, 3 day: 10, 4 day: 3, 5 day: 1, 6 day: 0
- 19 Boy Charts: 2 day: 12, 3 day: 4, 4 day: 2, 5 day: 0, 6 day: 1
Cut-offs of at least 2 days favored girls (30/49 = 61.2%), and cut-offs of 2 to 3 days also favored girls (26/42 = 61.9%). Cut-offs of 4 days or more also favored girls, but to a smaller exent (4/7 = 57.1%), but since this is a very small sample, the findings aren't totally reliable.
Curiously, girl charts had more ewcm on BD days (girls 34/60 = 56.7% of the time, boys 19/37 = 51.4% of the time), and girl charts had more ewcm on the last day of the cut-off (girls 22/30 = 73.3%, boys 10/19 = 52.6%).
- 68.8% of the charts with ewcm on the last day of the cut-off produced girls (22/32).
Conclusion: Cut-offs favor girls, particularly if the cut-off is only 2-3 days (61.9%) and if there is ewcm on the last day of the cut-off (68.8%).
Based on the results from my analysis, these are my swaying recommendations.
Swaying for a boy recommendations:
1. BD on ovulation w/ewcm. BDing on ovulation favors boys slightly (52.3%), and if ewcm is present, boys are more significantly favored (56.5%).
2. Have one-shot BDing, the day before or day of ovulation. Charts with one-time BDing are more likely to produce boys if the BDing occurs on ovulation or the day before. (68.2%)
3. Increase your ewcm. This is a significantly weaker suggestion than my others since I didn't specifically look FOR ewcm on charts. However, boy charts did have slightly more ewcm than girl charts (65.9% to 61.5%). Plus, if one should dry up ewcm to sway for a girl it makes sense to encourage ewcm for a boy.
Swaying for a girl recommendations:
1. Avoid BDing on ovulation. If you do BD on ovulation, make sure you don't have any ewcm. BDing on ovulation favors boys slightly (52.3%). However, a majority of girl charts still feature BDing on ovulation (56%), so it's not like BDing on that day is going to ruin your chances of having a girl. But if you want to increase your girl chances, avoid having any ewcm that particular day. BDing on ovulation without ewcm favors girls (56.8%).
2. Have frequent BDing (4+ BDing times) that avoids ovulation. Even better, have frequent consecutive BDing times (4+ BDing times where the last 4 BDing times are consecutive) that avoids ovulation. If frequent BDing avoids ovulation, girls are favored (59.6%). If the frequent BD has at least 4 consecutive BD times and the BD avoids ovulation, girls are even more strongly favored (85.7%). (This last finding isn't totally reliable as it is a small sample.) 7+ consecutive BDing times also favors girls (63.6%).
3. Have one-shot BDing, 2-3 days before ovulation. Charts with one-time BDing are more likely to produce girls if the BDing occurs 2-3 days before ovulation. (66.7%) (This finding isn't totally reliable since it is a small sample, but it is supported by the finding that cut-offs produce more girls.)
4. Dry up your ewcm. If there is no ewcm at all, girls are favored (54%). If there is only one day of ewcm, girls are favored (58.4%). And if there is at least a 2 day cut-off of BDing with ewcm (NOT a cut-off of BDing period), girls are favored (69.2%).
5. Have a cut-off of 2-3 days of BDing. Cut-offs of at least 2 days favored girls (61.2%), and cut-offs of 2 to 3 days favored girls even more (61.9%). Cut-offs of 4+ days favored girls to a smaller exent (57.1%), but since this is a very small sample, the findings aren't totally reliable. Also, if you choose to do a cut-off, you don't necessarily want to dry up your ewcm. Oddly, girl charts with a cut-off had more ewcm on BD days (56.7% of the time), and had more ewcm on the last day of the cut-off (68.8% of charts).
Final Thoughts:
One thing to keep in mind is that the only things I looked at in my analysis are BD timing and cm. There are many factors that influence gender (not the least of which is chance) and most of them don't show up on the FF charts. While some of the swaying methods identified above seem to favor one gender or the other, they are at best 55% to 70% effective. This means that instead of having a 5 in 10 chance of having your desired gender, you may have a 6 - or if you are really lucky, 7 - chance in 10 of having your desired gender. Any "effective" swaying technique is still going to produce a lot of opposites.
For instance, the fact that lots of boys are produced from cut-offs doesn't mean that cut-offs don't work - careful analysis of 400 charts suggests cut-offs do favor girls. The thing is, cut-offs don't favor girls that much and many opposites are going to be conceived with that swaying technique. The same can be said for the other methods that favor boys or girls. For that reason, when swaying, I think to have the best chance of conceiving your desired gender it is best to try to find several things that influence gender and not rely on just one.
It is perhaps not surprising that swaying isn't totally effective considering that Microsort - the only scientifically proven swaying method - is only about 90% effective. In many ways this ineffectiveness is a positive thing. We can do everything "right" and still get an opposite, and we can do everything "wrong" and still get our preferred gender. No matter what happens in our swaying journey, since chance plays a large role in whatever gender we end up with, there is little reason to "blame" ourselves if our swaying methods fail.
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Here is the summary I wrote after looking at 300 charts:
To try to figure out what really works in gender swaying, I analyzed 150 girl charts and 150 boy charts in FF, paying particular attention to CM and BD patterns from five days before ovulation to the day after ovulation. This is what I found.
Note: "ewcm" in the descriptions below refers to eggwhite OR watery cm - not just eggwhite cm.
1. Does BD on ovulation favor boys?
Yes, but the influence isn't that strong.
Out of the 150 girl charts, 84 (56% of charts) had BD on ovulation. Out of the 150 boy charts, 92 had BD on ovulation (61.3% of charts).
- Thus BD on ovulation results in a 47.7% chance of a girl (84/176), and a 52.3% chance of a boy (92/176) - which isn't much different than chance.
The amount of CM on ovulation does seem to sway things one way or the other, though.
- 118 charts had ewcm on ovulation: 53 girls (53/118 = 44.9%), and 65 boys (65/118 = 55.1%)
- 58 charts did not have ewcm on ovulation: 31 girls (31/58 = 53.4%), and 27 boys (27/58 = 46.6%).
Conclusion: BD on ovulation appears to slightly favor boys (52.3%), but it isn't a significant influence. The kind of CM present is more significant. If ewcm is present, there is a stronger chance of a boy (55.1%), but if it is not, girls are favored (53.4%).
2. Does frequent BD through Ovulation favor girls?
No. Frequent BD through ovulation results in similar numbers of boys and girls, with a slight preference for boys.
The number of BD sessions overall was exactly the same in the boy and girl charts. The 150 girl charts had 520 BD sessions, for an average of 3.47 times. The 150 boy charts also had 520 BD sessions, for an average of 3.47 times.
The number of charts with frequent BD (BD on 4 days or more) was also exactly the same, with 68 boy charts and 68 girl charts. The boy charts had BDing on slightly more days than the girl charts, but the numbers were still very similar. (Girl charts: 319 days on 68 charts = 4.69 days; Boy Charts: 323 days on 68 charts = 4.75 days)
Counting the number of separate BD times also results in very similar numbers. 69 boy charts had 4 or more BD times compared to 67 girl charts. 39 boy charts had 5 or more BD times compared to 37 girl charts. 16 boy charts had 6 or more BD times compared to 15 girl charts. And 4 boy charts had 7 or more BD times compared to 5 girl charts.
The reason why frequent BD through ovulation might slightly favor boys may be because of BD on ovulation itself, which also slightly favors boys (see #1).
- Of the 68 girl charts, 45 had BD on ovulation (66.2% of the girl charts)
- Of the 68 boy charts, 51 had BD on ovulation (75% of the boy charts).
- So out of these 96 frequent BD charts with BD on ovulation, girls resulted 46.9% of the time (45/96) and boys resulted 53.1% of the time (51/96).
However, looking at the 40 charts with frequent BD that avoided ovulation, the balance tips towards girls. 57.5% of these charts produced girls (23/40), but only 42.5% produced boys (17/40).
BD for at least 4 consecutive days with no gaps in the last 4 days of BD did show a slight preference for girls.
- Out of 45 charts with this pattern, 23 produced girls (23/45 = 51.1%), and 22 produced boys (22/45 = 48.9%).
- Out of 22 charts with at least 5 consecutive days, 12 produced girls (12/22 = 54.5%), and 10 produced boys (10/22 = 45.5%.)
- With 6 consecutive days, though, boys were strongly favored. There were 13 charts, 5 that produced girls (5/13 = 38.5%), and 8 that produced boys (8/13 = 61.5%).
- With 7 consecutive days, it shifted back to a preference for girls. In 5 charts, 3 produced a girl (3/5 = 60%), and 2 produced boys (2/5 = 40%).
When ovulation was avoided in these charts with long strings of consecutive BD, girls were favored. 6 charts out of the 45 avoided ovulation, 5 girls (5/6 = 83.3%), 1 boy (1/6 = 16.7%). This sample is so small, though, that the results aren't very reliable.
Conclusion: Frequent BD may reduce sperm count, but it seems that if the frequent BD continues through ovulation, the fact that BD on ovulation favors boys may cancel that benefit out.
- If there are gaps in the BD sequence the results are essentially the same as chance.
- Boys are slightly favored if there is BD on ovulation (53.1%) or if you have 6 or more straight BD days (61.5%).
- There is a small preference for girls if you have 4 or 5 consecutive BD sessions (51.1% to 54.5%), and a larger preference [b]if[/b] you avoid BD on ovulation (57.5 to 83.3%).
- Note: Frequent BD is one of the top swaying techniques for girls talked about on the gender swaying boards. If it is really as effective in swaying as people say, it is most likely the combination of taking supplements AND frequent BD that works, since frequent BDing by itself doesn't appear effective in swaying.
3. Does one time BD favor boys?
No. Both girl and boy charts have very similar numbers of one-time BDing.
25 charts had only one BD session - 12 girl charts and 13 boy charts.
While the numbers of charts with one-time BDing were similar, the pattern of BDing was significant.
- 9 boy and 3 girl charts had the BD on ovulation or the day before. (75% chance for a boy on those two days.)
- 2 boy and 6 girls charts had the BD 2 or 3 days before ovulation. (75% chance for a girl on those days.)
- 2 boy and 3 girl charts had the BD 4 to 6 days before ovulation. (Similar odds.)
Conclusion: Single time BDing by itself does not appear to favor boys, but if BDing only occurs one time, the day it occurs is significant. BDing on ovulation or the day before results in a 75% preference for boys; BDing 2 or 3 days before ovulation results in a 75% preference for girls. Another notable conclusion is that BD 1 time is not the most effective way to get pregnant. Only 8.3% of all the charts I looked at (25/300) had this pattern.
4. Does BD without ewcm favor girls?
Yes.
Boy and girl charts have very similar numbers of ewcm overall. Boy charts had 520 days of BD and 321 of those days had ewcm (61.7%). Girl charts had 520 days of BD and 331 of those days had ewcm (63.7%).
However, charts with little to no ewcm did favor girls. 56 out of 150 girl charts (37.3%) had either no ewcm when BD or had only 1 day of BD with ewcm. 47 out of 150 boy charts (31.3%) followed that same pattern.
- 24 girl charts (24/42 = 57.1%) and 18 boy charts (13/30 = 42.3%) had 0 BD sessions with ewcm
- 18 girl charts (18/27 = 66.7%) and 9 boy charts (9/27 = 33.3%) had a cut-off of 2 or more days of ewcm
- 14 girl charts (14/34 = 41.2%) and 20 boy charts (20/34 = 58.9%) had one day of ewcm on the day before, the day after or the day of ovulation
Conclusion: If there are no days of BD on a day with ewcm or if there is a cut-off of at least two days of ewcm (NOT a cut-off of BD period), girls are favored (57.1% and 66.7% respectively).
5. Do cut-offs of at least 2 days favor girls?
Yes. Cut-offs produce more girls than boys.
More girl charts than boy charts had cut-offs, counting charts that had at least a 2 day cut-off OR a 2 day cut-off and then BD on the day after ovulation. The preference for girls becomes smaller, though, when BD the day after ovulation is included.
- 31 Girl Charts: 2 day cut off: 16 (2 w/BD on Day +1), 3 day cut-off: 11 (2 w/BD on Day +1), 4 day cut-off: 2, 5 day cut-off: 2 (1 w/BD on Day +1), 6 day cut-off: 0
- 24 Boy Charts: 2 day cut off: 12 (3 w/BD on Day +1), 3 day cut-off: 7 (3 w/BD on Day +1), 4 day cut-off: 4 (2 w/BD on Day +1), 5 day cut-off: 0, 6 day cut-off: 1
Cut-offs of at least 2 days favored girls (26/42 = 61.9%), and cut-offs of 2 to 3 days also favored girls (23/36 = 63.9%). Cut-offs of 4 days or more had equal results (3/6 = 50%).
When charts that included a cut-off and BD the day after ovulation were included, the preference for girls is still present but smaller (31/55 = 56.4%).
Girl and boy charts had similar amounts of ewcm on BD days, with girls showing slightly more ewcm (girls 37/63 = 58.7% of the time, boys 30/53 = 56.6% of the time). Curiously, though, if the last day of the cut-off included EWCM, girls were favored.
- In all the charts (including those with BD the day after ovulation), 62.2% of the charts with EWCM on the last day of the cut-off produced girls (23/37).
- If the charts with BD the day after ovulation are excluded, 70.4% of the charts with EWCM on the last day of the cut-off produced girls (19/27).
Conclusion: Cut-offs favor girls, particularly if the cut-off is only 2-3 days (63.9%) and if there is ewcm on the last day of the cut-off (62.2% to 70.4%). However, long cut-offs of 4 days or more appear to produce equal numbers of girls and boys.
Patterns That Favor Girls
- BD on ovulation without ewcm. (53.4%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) that avoids ovulation. (57.5 to 83.3%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation with 4 or 5 consecutive days of BD and no gaps in the last 4 BD days. (51.1% to 54.5%)
- Never BD on a day when ewcm is present. (57.1%)
- Having a cut-off of BD on days with ewcm ([b]not[/b] a cut of BD period) of at least 2 days. (66.7%)
- Cut-offs of 2 or 3 days. (63.9%)
- Cut-offs of at least 2 days with BD the day after ovulation. (56.4%)
- Cut-offs where there is ewcm on the last day of the cut-off. (62.2% to 70.4%)
- Frequent BD with 4 or 5 consecutive days of BD that stops before ovulation. (80%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- BD 1 time 2 or 3 days before ovulation. (75%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- BD 1 time with ewcm as long as it is not on ovulation. (100%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
Patterns That Favor Boys
- BD on ovulation with ewcm. (55.1%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation with if there is BD on ovulation. (53.1%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation with 6 or more consecutive days of BD. (61.5%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- BD 1 time on ovulation or the day before. (75%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
Patterns That Are 50/50
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation if there are gaps in the sequence.
- Cut-offs of 4 days or more. (Small sample so not very reliable.)
Final Conclusions:
The bad news is that, based on analysis of charts in the gallery, swaying doesn't appear to be very effective. The good news is that, based on analysis of the charts in the gallery, swaying doesn't appear to be all that effective. :)
Most of the popular techniques used to sway for a particular gender either appear to be ineffective or have limited effectiveness. For instance, the fact that lots of boys are produced from cut-offs doesn't mean that cut-offs don't work - careful analysis of 300 charts suggests cut-offs do favor girls. The thing is, cut-offs don't favor girls that much and many opposites are going to be conceived with that swaying technique. The same can be said for the other methods that favor boys or girls.
It is perhaps not surprising that swaying isn't very effective considering that Microsort - the only scientifically proven swaying method - is only about 90% effective. The one plus side of the ineffectiveness is that there is little reason to "blame" ourselves if our swaying methods fail. We can do everything "right" and still get an opposite, and we can do everything "wrong" and still get our preferred gender. Chance plays a large role in whichever gender we end up with.
Also, the above analysis does not take into account the ph of cm, which some people believe is more effective than cm or BD timing. Ph doesn't appear in the charts, of course, and most information about its effectiveness is anecdotal. But it is still a plausible technique and definitely worth trying.
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Before I start my most up-to-date timing analysis (for 500 charts), I thought it might be helpful to post the earlier results I found. I wrote short summaries of my findings after looking at 200 charts, 300 charts, and 400 charts. What is interesting if you follow the results each time I added another 100 charts to the survey is that the conclusions stayed pretty much the same. The main difference is that any time a particular timing method appeared to be very effective (70% or higher effectiveness rate), that rate dropped as I added more charts.
So here is the summary from the first 200 charts I looked at:
To try to figure out what really works in gender swaying, I analyzed 101 girl charts and 102 boy charts in FF, paying particular attention to CM and BD patterns from five days before ovulation to the day after ovulation. This is what I found.
1. Does BD on ovulation favor boys?
Yes, but the influence may not be that strong.
Out of the 101 girl charts, 54 (53.5% of charts) had BD on ovulation. Out of the 102 boy charts, 60 had BD on ovulation (58.8% of charts). [Before I almost doubled my sample of charts, 69.6% of the boy charts had BD on ovulation. This is the only number that changed significantly when I added the new charts.]
- Thus BD on ovulation results in a 47.4% chance of a girl (54/114), and a 52.6% chance of a boy (60/114) - which isn't much different than chance.
The amount of CM on ovulation does seem to sway things one way or the other, though.
- 73 charts had ewcm on ovulation: 32 girls (32/74 = 43.2%), and 42 boys (42/74 = 56.8%)
- 41 charts did not have ewcm on ovulation: 22 girls (22/40 = 55%), and 18 boys (18/40 = 45%).
Conclusion: BD on ovulation appears to slightly favor boys (52.6%). The kind of CM present is also significant. If ewcm is present, there is a stronger chance of a boy (56.8%), but if it is not, girls are favored (55%).
2. Does frequent BD through Ovulation favor girls?
No. Frequent BD through ovulation favors boys by a little bit, and the more frequent the BD, the more it favors boys.
The number of BD sessions overall was almost exactly the same in the boy and girl charts. The 101 girl charts had 341 BD sessions, for an average of 3.38 times. The 102 boy charts had 349 BD sessions, for an average of 3.42 times.
The number of charts with frequent BD (4 sessions or more) was also almost exactly the same, with 44 boy charts and 45 girl charts. The more frequent the BD, though, the more it favors boys.
- 43 charts had 5 or more BD sessions: 24 boy charts (24/43 = 55.8%), 19 girl charts (19/43 = 44.2%)
- 18 charts had 6 or more BD sessions: 12 boy charts (12/18 = 66.7%), 6 girl charts (6/18 = 33/3%)
- 5 charts had 7 or more BD sessions: 4 boy charts (4/5 = 80%), 1 girl chart (1/5 = 20%)
The reason why frequent BD through ovulation seems to favor boys may be because of BD on ovulation itself, which seems to favor boys (see #1).
- Of the 45 girl charts, 27 had BD on ovulation (60% of the girl charts)
- Of the 44 boy charts, 34 had BD on ovulation (77.3% of the boy charts).
- So out of these 61 frequent BD charts with BD on ovulation, girls resulted 44.3% of the time (27/61) and boys resulted 55.7% of the time (34/61).
However, looking at the 28 charts with frequent BD that avoided ovulation, the balance tips towards girls. 64.3% of these charts produced girls (18/28), but only 35.7% produced boys (10/28).
BD for at least 4 consecutive days with no gaps in the last 4 days of BD also did not favor girls. For the most part, the results were the same you'd get by chance (49% girl, 51% boy).
- Out of 31 charts with this pattern, 15 produced girls (15/31 = 48.4%), and 16 produced boys (16/31 = 51.6%).
- Out of 17 charts with at least 5 consecutive days, 8 produced girls (8/17 = 47.1%), and 9 produced boys (9/17 = 52.9%.)
- With 6 consecutive days, though, boys were strongly favored. There were 9 charts, 2 that produced girls (2/9 = 22.2%), and 7 that produced boys (7/9 = 77.8%).
- With 7 consecutive days, boys were still favored. In 3 charts, 1 produced a girl (1/3 = 33.3%), and 2 produced boys (2/3 = 66.7%).
When ovulation was avoided in these charts with long strings of consecutive BD, girls were favored. 5 charts out of the 31 avoided ovulation, 4 girls (4/5 = 80%), 1 boy (1/5 = 20%). This sample is so small, though, that the results aren't very reliable.
Conclusion: Frequent BD may reduce sperm count, but it seems that if the frequent BD continues through ovulation, the fact that BD on ovulation favors boys may cancel that benefit out.
- The results are the same as chance if you have 4 or 5 consecutive BD sessions.
- Boys are favored a little bit if there are gaps in the BD sequence (55.7%) or if you have 6 or 7 straight BD days (66.7% to 77.8%).
- Frequent BD favors girls (64.3 to 80%) if you avoid BD on ovulation.
3. Does one time BD favor boys?
No. Both girl and boy charts have pretty similar patterns of one-time BD. If there is any preference, it appears to be for girls.
16 charts had only one BD session - 9 girl charts, and 7 boy charts. This produces a 56.3% (9/16) preference for girls, but since the sample is relatively small, I think it's questionable whether BD one time truly favors girls.
The patterns of BD were also similar.
- 3 boy and 2 girls charts had the BD on ovulation
- 1 boy and 1 girl chart had the BD 1 day before ovulation
- 1 boy and 3 girls charts had the BD 2 or 3 days before ovulation
- 2 boy and 3 girl charts had the BD 4 to 6 days before ovulation
If ewcm was present on the single BD session, it seemed to favor girls. Since that conflicts with some other findings, it might just be a result of the small sample, but it is still notable.
- 3 out of 7 boy charts (42.9%) had ewcm. Those 3 days were all on ovulation itself. All of the cut-offs lacked ewcm.
- 6 out of 9 girl charts (66.7%) had ewcm. 1 day was on ovulation; 5 were on cut-offs.
- If the 1 BD session with ewcm was on ovulation, it produced a 75% preference for boys (3/4), and a 25% preference for girls (1/4).
- If the 1 BD session was not on ovulation and had ewcm, it produced a 100% preference for girls (5/5).
- If the 1 BD session was not on ovulation and lacked ewcm, it produced a 66.7% preference for boys (4/6), and a 33.3% preference for girls (2/6).
Conclusion: The sample is too small to reach any strong conclusions, other than that there doesn't appear to be evidence that BD 1 time favors boys. What is notable, though, is that BD 1 time is not the most effective way to get pregnant. Only 7.9% of all the charts I looked at (16/203) had this pattern.
4. Does BD without ewcm favor girls?
Yes.
38 out of 101 girl charts (37.6%) had either no ewcm when BD or had only 1 BD session on a day with ewcm. 28 out of 101 boy charts (27.5%) followed that same pattern.
- 17 girl charts (17/30 = 56.7%) and 13 boy charts (13/30 = 43.3%) had 0 BD sessions with ewcm
- 12 girl charts (12/16 = 75%) and 4 boy charts (4/16 = 25%) had a cut-off of 2 or more days of ewcm
- 9 girl charts (9/20 = 45%) and 11 boy charts (11/20 = 55%) had one day of ewcm on the day before, the day after or the day of ovulation.
Curiously, if there is at least a 2 day cut-off of BD, the presence of ewcm appears to favor girls while the lack of it appears to favor boys. (See #5)
Conclusion: If there are no days of BD on a day with ewcm or if there is a cut-off of at least two days of ewcm, girls are favored (56.7% and 75% respectively).
5. Do cut-offs of at least 2 days favor girls?
No. Cut-offs seem to produce similar numbers of girls and boys. [Note: Actually, looking at the data, cut-offs only produce similar numbers of boys and girls if charts that have a cut-off AND BD that day after ovulation are included. Cut-offs by themselves do produce more girls.]
There were equal numbers of boy and girl charts with cut-offs, counting charts that had at least a 2 day cut-off OR a 2 day cut-off and then BD on the day after ovulation.
- 19 Girl Charts: 2 day cut off: 8 (1 w/BD on Day +1), 3 day cut-off: 7 (1 w/BD on Day +1), 4 day cut-off: 2, 5 day cut-off: 2 (1 w/BD on Day +1), 6 day cut-off: 0
- 19 Boy Charts: 2 day cut off: 10 (2 w/BD on Day +1), 3 day cut-off: 5 (3 w/BD on Day +1), 4 day cut-off: 3 (1 w/BD on Day +1), 5 day cut-off: 0, 6 day cut-off: 1
Cut-offs of at least 2 days slightly favored girls (16/29 = 55.2%), and cut-offs of 2 to 3 days also slightly favored girls (13/23 = 56.5%). Cut-offs of 4 days or more had equal results (3/6 = 50%). However, when charts that included a cut-off and BD the day after ovulation were included, the preference for girls disappears and odds of a girl are exactly 50/50 no matter how long the previous cut-off was.
Girl and boy charts had similar amounts of ewcm on BD days, with girls showing slightly more ewcm (girls 24/40 = 60% of the time, boys 24/42 = 57.1% of the time). However, in contrast to other findings, CM with cut-offs seemed to favor girls.
- There were more boy charts that had 0 days of BD w/ewcm (7/11 = 63.6%) than girl charts (4/11 = 36.4%).
- There was also a significant preference for girls if the last day of the cut-off had ewcm. 15/26 girl charts = 57.7%; 11/26 boy charts = 42.3%. (This is not counting whether ewcm was present the day after ovulation.)
Conclusion: There seems to be a preference for girls (55.2% to 56.5%) with a cut-off as long as there is no BD on the day after ovulation. The preference is larger if the cut-off is only 2 to 3 days (56.5%). It appears that cut-offs with ewcm also favors girls. More boys had charts with no ewcm (63.6%), and a greater number of girl charts had ewcm on the last day of the cut-off (57.7%).
Patterns That Favor Girls
- BD on ovulation without ewcm. (55%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) that avoids ovulation. (64.3%)
- Cut-offs of 2 or 3 days. (56.5%)
- Cut-offs where there is ewcm on the last day of the cut-off. (57.7%)
- Never BD on a day when ewcm is present. (56.7%)
- Having a cut-off of BD on days with ewcm (not a cut of BD period) of at least 2 days. (75%)
- Frequent BD with 4 or 5 consecutive days of BD that stops before ovulation. (80%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- BD 1 time. (56.3%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- BD 1 time with ewcm as long as it is not on ovulation. (100%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
Patterns That Favor Boys
- BD on ovulation. (52.6%)
- BD on ovulation with ewcm. (56.8%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation if there are gaps in sequence. (55.7%)
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation with 6 or 7 consecutive days of BD. (66.7 to 77.8%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
- Cut-offs where there is no ewcm on the BD days. (63.6%) (Small sample so not very reliable.)
Patterns That Are 50/50
- Frequent BD (4+ times) through ovulation with 4 or 5 consecutive days of BD and no gaps in the last 4 BD days.
- Cut-offs of 4 or more days if the cut-off is followed by BD on the day after ovulation. (Small sample so not very reliable.)
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Ever since I picked up a copy of Shettles' How to Choose the Sex of Your Baby a few months before ttc my dd, I have been interested in swaying. I desperately wanted a little girl but had always assumed that what you got was pretty much up to chance. Yet here was someone saying there were things you could do to influence the gender of your future child!
Shortly after I found Shettles' book, I started using Fertility Friend for charting and quickly discovered that most people on the swaying board there were (and still are) pretty dismissive about Shettles. That made it hard to decide how to plan my sway. Did I go along with Shettles' theory that cut-offs favored a girl? Or did I go with the theory advocated on FF that it was best to have frequent BD through ovulation? Both theories sounded reasonable, but I didn't want to make the decision about which method to use based on anecdotes and opinions. I wanted some way to test which was most effective.
Then I hit upon what seemed like a great idea to me: FF is filled with hundreds of pregnancy charts that include information about BD timing, cm patterns, and the gender that resulted. I could just look at a bunch of charts and see what timing and cm patterns resulted in the most girls and boys. This started out as a small, relatively informal survey and has grown into a detailed analysis of 500 (and counting) charts.
I have posted my survey results on my FF chart; however, there isn't a whole lot of space there for writing information (occasionally people do actually want to be able to find my chart!). Since a lot of people have indicated some interest in my survey, I thought it might be useful to start this blog, where I would have a lot more space to explain how I've conducted this survey and what results I've found.
The Survey Itself
Virtually all the charts I am using came from the chart gallery at Fertility Friend. (A handful of charts came from other sources, but they are not part of the main study, and I will explain in the relevant sections when I'm using extra charts.) When I was selecting charts I excluded ones that:
- did not chart cm at all
- were only partially filled in or did not include daily basal body temperature (if just a couple of temperatures were missing I didn't worry, but if temperatures were only included for half the cycle, I excluded the chart)
- indicated IVF/IUI had been used- resulted in multiples (unfortunately, I didn't figure out a good way to automatically exclude pregnancies with multiples, so some might have slipped in - but I excluded any charts I noticed)
- had obvious errors or problems that I felt made the information in the chart questionable (there were only a couple charts I can remember excluding for this reason - in one case, the chart had a 6 or 7 day cut-off and every sign from cm to OPKs to temperature shift to when she got her BFP indicated that ovulation occurred on a different day than the one noted on her chart; in another case, the temperature on the most likely day of ovulation was discarded, which meant the day of ovulation was most likely identified incorrectly)
For all of these charts I kept track of BD and cm patterns on the five days prior to ovulation through the day afterward (so I was looking at 7 days total). (Note: there was one chart that had a 6 day cut-off that I did include because all the signs indicated ovulation had been identified correctly. That is the only chart where I looked at 6 days prior to ovulation in the survey.)
The reason I selected five days as my cut-off is because I read that sperm could only survive for up to five days. So I figured that the BD that would be most influential on a pregnancy outcome would be the BD that occurred five days before ovulation through the day afterward.
O+12
The survey I have done, unfortunately, has nothing to say about O+12. With O+12 it is critical to know the exact time of ovulation - and the exact time for 12 hours after ovulation. Since FF only indicates the day of ovulation, not the time of ovulation, it is impossible to tell if any of the charts are O+12 charts. Also, since most of the people on FF who have gotten pregnant were trying to get pregnant, it is doubtful that there would be many charts with a true O+12 anyway - that is, seven days of abstinence and then BD at least 12 hours after ovulation occurs.
Still, I do think O+12 is an effective girl timing method. The one study in the FAQ on O+12 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=retrieve&db=pubmed&list_uids=7427410&dopt=AbstractPlus) suggests a high success rate for O+12. If I am understanding the numbers correctly (and it is entirely possible I'm not), the study found that for every 1 girl born there were .514 boys born. This would result in a 66.01% success rate for girls. It's just one study, and I don't know how many people were involved in it since only the abstract is available. But still, if correct, that is a pretty impressive figure. And based on what I have found in my study, I think a 65-70% success rate for timing is the highest success rate that can reasonably be expected from timing alone.
So that is it for the introduction to my timing analysis. :) In the following posts, I will start listing the results that I found in my study.
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